u* = √uv

This paper argues that in the United States the full-employment rate of unemployment (FERU) is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates. Between 1930 and 2023, the FERU averages 4.1% and is very stable.

June 2024 · Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez

Moen Meets Rotemberg: An Earthly Model of the Divine Coincidence

This paper develops a simple business-cycle model with divine coincidence: inflation is on target when unemployment is efficient. The divine coincidence arises from directed search under a quadratic price-adjustment cost.

January 2024 · Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez

Beveridgean Unemployment Gap

This paper develops a sufficient-statistic formula for the unemployment gap. The formula depends on the elasticity of the Beveridge curve, cost of unemployment, and recruiting cost. In the United States the unemployment gap is countercyclical and often positive.

December 2021 · Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez